Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. In April, the national consumer price rose by 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, the price of fresh fruit rose by 11.9%, which affected the CPI by about 0.22%.

　　According to media reports, the CPI data of 31 provinces in April have also been released one after another. Don’t look at the classification, there are 13 provinces with a year-on-year increase in fresh fruits, and 18 provinces with an increase of over 10%.

　　Why is the price of fruit "rising" recently? When will the price stabilize in the future?

　　On May 23, CCTV Financial Review invitedGuo Liyan, a researcher at the Market Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, andWang Guan, a commentator of Yangguang Finance and Economics, was a guest in the studio.

　　Why is the fruit "rising"?

　　Guo Liyan: The seasonal supply gap of fresh fruit is bigger than in previous years.

　　Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Market Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute: The seasonal supply gap of fresh fruit is larger than in previous years, and there are several factors. The first is from 2018 to 2019.Disastrous weather occurred in different degrees in the southern and northern fruit producing areas during the growing period, and it is a gap period in the fruit market at present.

　　In addition,At the beginning of this year, there was a cold spring, and the handling cost and labor cost in some parts of the south also increased during the rain. Coupled with the increase in transportation costs, the price of fresh fruit rose.

　　Crown: "Yan value economy" has become a price pusher

　　Wang Guan, commentator of Yangguang Finance and Economics: From another perspective, I noticed that the number of fruits imported from Beijing Xinfadi is increasing, and the price of fruits is also rising.The impact of the increase in the proportion of high-end fruits such as foreign imports and organic fruits.

　　Consumers’ demand for "fine fruits" is increasing, which leads to the continuous improvement of the quality and grade of fruits. In addition, with the development of cities, some traditional farmers’ markets gradually fade out.The sales channels of new fruit specialty stores or comprehensive supermarkets, and the cost of property are increasing. These factors have promoted the price of fruit to a certain extent.

　　When will "low-key fruit" return?

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　　Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said recently that the price of fresh fruit is affected by seasonal factors of extreme weather, and the seasonal short-term impact is not sustainable.The rise in the price of fresh fruit will not last at a high level.

　　Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Market Research Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute: From June to August, summer fruits began to be listed in batches, and melons such as watermelons and cantaloupes were gradually listed, which would lower the whole fruit market price.

　　By September, as new apples mature and enter the market this year, the price of fresh fruit will be stabilized, and with the gradual increase of supply, the price of fresh fruit will gradually stabilize.

　　Crown: E-commerce giants actively enter the market, price subsidies attract traffic

　　Wang Guan, commentator of Yangguang Finance: Now online shopping has become the choice of many consumers. Nowadays, e-commerce has entered an era of digging deep into stocks, and various shopping apps are attracting everyone’s attention.

　　Recently, everyone will see that at least 3 to 4 home appliance manufacturers have entered fruit producing areas, such as litchi producing areas, hoping to compete for traffic through the docking of e-commerce and fruit farmers. Consumers will download the APP and get discounts when buying fruits.These promotional measures are aimed at targeting the market and competing for users, but they also bring certain benefits to consumers.

　　Guo Liyan: Smooth supply channels, fruit prices will fall seasonally, and the price base will be solid.

　　Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Market Research Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said: People’s consumption is upgrading, and the quality of consumption is also upgrading. Now, we choose the best from the fruit seed industry.

　　I think subtraction should be done as far as possible around fruit production, storage, circulation, retail and distribution, so that it can reach the people through simple links and reduce costs. In addition, we should improve the quality of service supply.

　　On the other hand, around the supply, we can look at it from a broader perspective. Some good high-end fruits imported from abroad, such as fruits from Southeast Asia and other places, can be matched out of season, and some fruits can also expand their stocks. In the case of low stocks, we can stabilize the price of fresh fruits by expanding overseas supply, improving stocks and unblocking channels, which provides strong support for food prices. I think there is a solid foundation for stabilizing prices.

　　Crown: price increase and slow sales coexist. Agricultural modernization needs to be accelerated

　　Wang Guan, commentator of Yangguang Finance: Recently, fruit prices are rising, but this year,In some places, fruits are also unsalable.

　　Because the freshness of fruits is relatively strong, the sales channels are not smooth for a short time, which reflects to some extent that there is a relatively high room for improvement in order agriculture, and our agricultural modernization needs to be accelerated in the future.

BYD (002594.SZ) handed over its best report card since its listing.

On the evening of January 29th, BYD released its performance forecast for 2023. During this period, the company realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 29 billion-31 billion yuan, up by about 86% year-on-year. The non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was RMB 27.4 billion-RMB 29.7 billion, up by about 90% year-on-year.

This performance is basically in line with market expectations. IChoice data shows that the average forecast of BYD’s net profit in 2023 is 28.332 billion yuan, which is almost the same as the median forecast of the company’s performance.

On the whole, the new energy vehicle industry continued to maintain a high-speed growth trend, and BYD’s new energy vehicle sales reached a record high, further consolidating the leading position of new energy vehicle sales in the world. The competition in the industry is more intense. With the rapid growth of the company’s overseas sales, the scale advantage of continuous expansion, and the ability to control the cost of the industrial chain, the profit has been greatly improved.

Judging from the production and sales data, BYD produced a total of 3,045,200 new energy vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 62.24%; Accumulated sales of 3,024,400 new energy vehicles, up 62.30% year-on-year.

BYD’s sales in 2023 clearly outperformed the industry. Minsheng Securities Research Report pointed out that the national sales of new energy passenger cars are expected to reach 8.62 million in 2023, up 31.7% year-on-year; Benefiting from the further improvement of the quantity of new models and the product pedigree of each price segment, BYD achieved the target sales of 3 million vehicles, significantly outperforming the industry.

In addition, BYD has continued to lay out in the sea. In 2023, BYD sold 243,000 new energy passenger cars overseas, a year-on-year increase of 334.2%.

Since the second half of 2023, BYD has continuously strengthened its overseas layout. In July, BYD announced the establishment of a factory in Brazil, with an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles. In September, Uzbekistan’s state-controlled automobile group announced that it would establish a joint venture company with BYD. The first/second phase of the factory plans to produce 500,000 units per year, and the output will reach 300,000 units after the completion of the third phase. In December, BYD announced that it would build a new energy vehicle production base in Segde, Hungary.

Minsheng Securities Research Report believes that BYD’s going out to sea is expected to usher in rapid development in Europe, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand, helping sales to rise again in 2024.

Soochow securities gave a more optimistic judgment about the future. According to its research report, BYD actively promotes the layout of overseas markets, and the volume of overseas markets helps sales growth. 2024-2025 is the year of products, and the estimated sales volume is about 4 million and 5 million respectively, up by 33% and 25% respectively.

As for BYD’s other major business-mobile phone parts and assembly business, its profitability has also increased with the recovery of the consumer electronics industry.

BYD said that thanks to the increase in the business share of large overseas customers and the recovery of Android customers’ demand, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and new smart products, the capacity utilization rate has been significantly improved, the business structure has been further optimized, the profitability has been significantly improved, and the profit has increased substantially.

From 2020 to 2022, the gross profit margin of BYD’s mobile phone parts and assembly business was 11.20%, 7.57% and 6.06% respectively, showing a downward trend year by year. The semi-annual report in 2023 showed that the gross profit margin of this business was 8.77%, up 2.70 percentage points year-on-year.

Although the performance is very gratifying, BYD’s share price has not kept up. On January 29th, the company’s share price fell by 3.99%, hitting a new low since May 2021. BYD’s latest market value is 519.5 billion yuan.