After 1000 days of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, what changes have taken place in the global political and financial markets？

Just yesterday, the Russian-Ukrainian war lasted for 1000 days.

At first, the whole world should not have expected that this geopolitical conflict would last so long.

From "blitzkrieg" to "protracted war", the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine seem to be quite far away, and it is likely to enter a dangerous new stage.

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new version of the nuclear doctrine; Ukraine used American-made missiles to attack targets in Russia for the first time, and the G7 still declared that it would continue to be quite Ukraine.

The global political situation is ups and downs

On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a special military operation in the Donbass region, and the whole territory of Ukraine entered a wartime state and broke diplomatic relations with Russia.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine officially broke out.

Since then, Russia’s "blitzkrieg" failed, and the timeline of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began to lengthen, which continues to this day.

Although the war between the two sides was once anxious, Russia was "unstoppable" and Ukraine also launched a big counterattack. However, under the agitation of western forces, it is still difficult for Russia and Ukraine to hold peace talks.

In the early morning of 19th local time, the Ukrainian army used six American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles for the first time to attack targets in Russia.

On the same day, Putin signed a new version of the basic policy of Russia’s nuclear deterrent country. The new policy expands the scope of countries and military alliances where Russia can implement nuclear deterrence.

In the past two years, in addition to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, many battlefields in the Middle East have also been ignited.

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Iraq-Israel conflict, the lebanon war and the Red Sea crisis … "The powder keg in the Middle East" was ignited at the same time.

Statistics show that since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out on October 7 last year, 43,972 Palestinians have been killed and 104,008 injured in Israeli military operations in the Gaza.

It is noteworthy that this year is also a global election year, and Russia and the United States have successively held presidential elections.

In March this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin was re-elected and began his next six-year presidency, which is also his fifth presidency.

In his inaugural speech, Putin stressed that the interests and security of the Russian people are above everything else, and he will devote himself to safeguarding national unity and stability.

In November, the ups and downs of the American election were settled. Trump will officially take office in January next year and become the 47th president of the United States.

At present, for the current President Biden, there is not much time left for him, because Trump 2.0 declares that he will never wage war.

Therefore, since the end of the general election, the fighting on the Russian-Ukrainian front has become more tense with the naked eye.

Financial market turmoil

Whether it is the war between Russia and Ukraine or the battlefield in the Middle East, it has been stirring the nerves of the global market.

The most obvious is:Global risk aversion is heating up.

In the past two years, gold has skyrocketed. This year, spot gold peaked at $2,790 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures topped $2,800 per ounce.

According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, since 2024, the price of gold has hit a new high for more than 30 times.

Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine, the cumulative increase of spot gold has exceeded 37%.

Although the dollar has returned strongly since Trump won the election in November, the price of gold has been adjusted back for more than half a month. However, with the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of gold seems to be making a comeback.

Wall Street is now bullish on gold prices, and UBS, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have said that gold will go further.

UBS analysts said that gold will further rise to $2,950 per ounce by the end of 2026; Goldman Sachs also shouted "buy gold", with a target of $3,000 by the end of next year; Bank of America also said that before Trump took office, he would focus on China and European stock markets and gold.

Safe-haven demand pushed US debt higher, the yield curve leveled off and the panic index climbed.

On Tuesday, the panic index VIX rose 4.94% to 16.35. The yield of US 10-year treasury bonds fell by 0.43% to close at 4.399%, which was 11.4 basis points lower than that of two-year treasury bonds.

Eurozone bonds rose and European stock markets fell to their lowest level since August. The yield of British 10-year government bonds fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.442%, while that of German 10-year government bonds fell by 3.6 basis points to 2.338%.

crude oilOn the other hand, the escalation of geopolitical tensions has supported oil prices, and WTI crude oil futures prices closed slightly higher on Tuesday.

foreign exchangeIn the market, the demand for safe-haven currencies such as Japanese yen and Swiss franc has increased, and the intraday fluctuation of USD/JPY is particularly severe.

In addition, with the impact of Trump 2.0 policy expectations,Virtual currency is also rising.A few days ago, Bitcoin hit another record high, reaching 93,844 US dollars, rising more than 3% in 24 hours.

Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst of HashKey Group, said that Bitcoin stands at $90,000, and there is still room for growth in the future.