Tomorrow, our mobile phone will be screened by Buffett again!

　　At 22:15 Beijing time on May 4th, the annual shareholders’ meeting of Berkshire Hathaway will be held in Omaha, USA. It is estimated that about 30,000 shareholders will attend, and millions of people will watch it online. The most noteworthy issues of this shareholders’ meeting include:

　　Who is Buffett’s successor? — — Bashen is 88 years old and Munger is 95 years old.

　　What about Berkshire’s more than $110 billion in cash? — — Look at the company’s share price of $320,000. Do you still think Maotai is expensive?

　　The repurchase scale will be as high as $100 billion? — — There are not many good companies worth buying, so I have to buy myself.

　　However, for A-share investors, they may be more concerned about this question: What does Buffett think of the China market? Which stocks of A shares meet its stock selection criteria?

　　Which A shares can enter the eyes of the law?

　　There are many criteria for Buffett’s stock selection, but there are clear quantitative criteria. He only said one sentence, that is, the annual return on net assets (ROE) is greater than 20% for 10 consecutive years.

　　The so-called return on equity (ROE) is the ratio of company profits to shareholders’ equity. It represents the investment income of investors, in short, how much money the enterprise can earn for investors.

　　ROE is a measure of a company’s long-term profitability. The higher the ROE, the higher the net profit it earns with the same shareholder capital investment. According to Coca-Cola’s standard, that is, keeping the ROE above 20% for 10 consecutive years, it is the company that Buffett may like.

　　So, which companies in A shares meet Buffett’s standards?

　　Wind data shows that in the 10 years from 2009 to 2019, among the listed companies whose ROE (deduction/dilution) continuously exceeds 20%, there are only five listed companies in A shares, namely Kweichow Moutai, Haitian Weiye, Gree Electric, Yanghe and Chengde Lulu.

　　The average share price increase of these five listed companies in the past 10 years is 690.49%, and the annualized rate of return is 22.97%. The biggest increase is Kweichow Moutai, which rose 12 times in 10 years, followed by Gree Electric, which rose more than 11 times in 10 years.

　　If we relax the ROE standard to 15%, that is, we will keep the ROE above 15% for 10 consecutive years. So, how many companies in A shares meet this standard?

　　Wind data shows that in the 10 years from 2009 to 2019, there were 14 listed companies with ROE (deduction/dilution) exceeding 15% continuously, namely Shuanghui Development, Kweichow Moutai, Haitian Weiye, Hikvision, Gree Electric, Huadong Medicine, Yanghe, Chengde Lulu, Hengrui Pharma, Chongda Technology, dongfeng shares, Fuyao Glass and so on.

　　The average share price increase of these 14 listed companies in the past 10 years is 551.72%, and the annualized rate of return is 20.62%. Among them, Hengrui Pharma, Kweichow Moutai and Gree Electric rose more than 10 times, while Huadong Medicine, Hikvision and Golden Mantis rose more than 5 times.

　　Is Bashen’s strategy unacceptable?

　　In the past 10 years, what is the investment income of Warren Buffett?

　　According to media calculations, if an investor bought a dollar of Berkshire stock 10 years ago, the return today is about $2.4, but if this dollar is invested in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Fund, the return today is about $3.2. In other words, in the past 10 years, the income from investing in Berkshire has not been as high as that from investing in the S&P 500 index fund.

　　In 2018, the worst performance of global financial assets in the past 100 years, the "stock god" seems to be unhappy. Suffering from various "thunder" such as Apple’s performance falling short of expectations and Kraft Heinz’s performance changing face, Berkshire lost more than $25 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, but still earned more than $4 billion in the whole year.

　　But in A-share market, Buffett’s stock picking strategy still seems feasible.

　　In the past decade, 108 A-share stocks have increased more than 5 times, and 29 have increased more than 10 times. The median ROE of these 29 stocks is 14.88%. During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 24.72%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 50.2%, the CSI 500 Index rose by 74.59%, and the Shenzhen dividend index rose by 132.51%.

　　Obviously, those companies with long-term earning ability and dividend-paying ability can surpass the market if they buy at a reasonable price. However, it should be pointed out that value investment is by no means equal to an ROE index, and the stocks selected according to it are not necessarily suitable investment targets, but only help us find out those good companies more easily.

　　The above data illustrates two problems:

　　First, as Buffett said: "By investing in index funds regularly, an investor who knows nothing can usually beat most professional fund managers." Buffett has recommended index funds for more than ten times.

　　In Buffett’s view, the vast majority of investors rarely invest in index funds, and as a result, their performance in investing in stocks is mostly just mediocre, or even disastrous. There are three main reasons for the loss of investment stocks:

　　1. The cost is too high, investors buy and sell too frequently, or the expenses are too large;

　　2. Investment decisions are made according to gossip or market trends, rather than after careful consideration and quantitative analysis of listed companies;

　　3, blindly chasing up and down, buying or selling at the wrong time.

　　Second, practice has proved that the companies with the strongest earning power in A-shares can bring rich long-term returns to investors.

　　The overall growth level of A-share listed companies is better than the average level of social enterprises. The long-term stock price trend charts of leading enterprises such as Gree Electric, Vanke A, China Merchants Bank, China Ping An and Fuyao Glass are all consistent with the development path of enterprises.

　　The method of value investment has not failed in A-shares. In fact, A-shares will create a good opportunity for value investors to pick up bargains every few years, making it easier for investors to meet good prices. Numerous masters have emphasized that all investment is to find a good industry, a good company and a good price.

　　Finally, Buffett has bought two China stocks so far — — China Petroleum and BYD.

　　In 2003, Buffett bought H shares of China Petroleum at a price of HK$ 1.6, and cleared the position when the share price reached HK$ 13.5 in 2007, with a four-year income of more than 7 times (the reinstatement factor has been considered, the same below). When Buffett bought it, the P/E ratio of China Petroleum was only 5 times, while when China Petroleum was listed on A-share in 2007, the P/E ratio of 48 yuan’s opening price was as high as 63 times.

　　In 2008, Buffett subscribed for 225 million shares of BYD at a price of about HK$ 8 per share. At present, Buffett still holds shares in BYD, and its latest share price is HK$ 53.55, and its income has exceeded five times. When Buffett bought BYD shares, the corresponding P/E ratio was only 10.2 times. At present, its latest P/E ratio is 39.29 times.

　　China securities journal Song Zhaoqing

BYD (002594.SZ) handed over its best report card since its listing.

On the evening of January 29th, BYD released its performance forecast for 2023. During this period, the company realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 29 billion-31 billion yuan, up by about 86% year-on-year. The non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was RMB 27.4 billion-RMB 29.7 billion, up by about 90% year-on-year.

This performance is basically in line with market expectations. IChoice data shows that the average forecast of BYD’s net profit in 2023 is 28.332 billion yuan, which is almost the same as the median forecast of the company’s performance.

On the whole, the new energy vehicle industry continued to maintain a high-speed growth trend, and BYD’s new energy vehicle sales reached a record high, further consolidating the leading position of new energy vehicle sales in the world. The competition in the industry is more intense. With the rapid growth of the company’s overseas sales, the scale advantage of continuous expansion, and the ability to control the cost of the industrial chain, the profit has been greatly improved.

Judging from the production and sales data, BYD produced a total of 3,045,200 new energy vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 62.24%; Accumulated sales of 3,024,400 new energy vehicles, up 62.30% year-on-year.

BYD’s sales in 2023 clearly outperformed the industry. Minsheng Securities Research Report pointed out that the national sales of new energy passenger cars are expected to reach 8.62 million in 2023, up 31.7% year-on-year; Benefiting from the further improvement of the quantity of new models and the product pedigree of each price segment, BYD achieved the target sales of 3 million vehicles, significantly outperforming the industry.

In addition, BYD has continued to lay out in the sea. In 2023, BYD sold 243,000 new energy passenger cars overseas, a year-on-year increase of 334.2%.

Since the second half of 2023, BYD has continuously strengthened its overseas layout. In July, BYD announced the establishment of a factory in Brazil, with an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles. In September, Uzbekistan’s state-controlled automobile group announced that it would establish a joint venture company with BYD. The first/second phase of the factory plans to produce 500,000 units per year, and the output will reach 300,000 units after the completion of the third phase. In December, BYD announced that it would build a new energy vehicle production base in Segde, Hungary.

Minsheng Securities Research Report believes that BYD’s going out to sea is expected to usher in rapid development in Europe, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand, helping sales to rise again in 2024.

Soochow securities gave a more optimistic judgment about the future. According to its research report, BYD actively promotes the layout of overseas markets, and the volume of overseas markets helps sales growth. 2024-2025 is the year of products, and the estimated sales volume is about 4 million and 5 million respectively, up by 33% and 25% respectively.

As for BYD’s other major business-mobile phone parts and assembly business, its profitability has also increased with the recovery of the consumer electronics industry.

BYD said that thanks to the increase in the business share of large overseas customers and the recovery of Android customers’ demand, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and new smart products, the capacity utilization rate has been significantly improved, the business structure has been further optimized, the profitability has been significantly improved, and the profit has increased substantially.

From 2020 to 2022, the gross profit margin of BYD’s mobile phone parts and assembly business was 11.20%, 7.57% and 6.06% respectively, showing a downward trend year by year. The semi-annual report in 2023 showed that the gross profit margin of this business was 8.77%, up 2.70 percentage points year-on-year.

Although the performance is very gratifying, BYD’s share price has not kept up. On January 29th, the company’s share price fell by 3.99%, hitting a new low since May 2021. BYD’s latest market value is 519.5 billion yuan.

　　BEIJING, Beijing, September 27 (Ma Xueling, Lu Chunrong) On the 27th, there was strong wind and cool weather in Beijing. With the cold air heading south, the temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will generally drop in the next few days, which also makes the hot topic of "Crying in the Winter" once again appear on the Internet. So, will you really cry this winter?

　　Beijing gale cooling: it is estimated that the minimum temperature of level 7 gust is 12℃

　　This morning, there was a strong wind in Beijing, which made me feel cold.

　　China Weather Network reported that due to the influence of cold air, the northern wind began to take over the sky of Beijing at 4 or 5 o’clock this morning. According to meteorological monitoring, as of 5: 30 this morning, gusts of magnitude 6 or above have appeared in Haidian Station, Chedaogou, Xiangshan, Bei ‘an River, Fenghuangling, yongfeng middle school and Minzhuang.

　　The Beijing Meteorological Observatory issued a weather forecast at 6 o’clock today: it will be cloudy and sunny during the day, with a northerly wind of about five and a gust of about seven, with a maximum temperature of 23 C; It’s sunny at night, and the north wind turns from level 4 to level 23, with a minimum temperature of 12℃. In the gale blue warning, pay attention to wind protection and prevent falling objects.

　　At 17: 00 the day before, the Beijing Meteorological Observatory issued a blue warning signal for strong winds. It is estimated that there will be northerly winds of Grade 4 and 5 from north to south in Beijing from 4: 00 to 20: 00 on the 27th, and the gust can reach about Grade 7.

　　Cold air goes south in a big way, and autumn tigers turn into paper tigers in seconds.

　　In addition to Beijing, this morning, most parts of Inner Mongolia also experienced significant cooling, with the cooling rate in some areas exceeding 10℃ and the temperature falling below 5℃.

　　According to the news released by the Central Meteorological Observatory this morning, it is estimated that the temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will drop by 4 ~ 6℃ from north to south from September 27th to 29th due to the influence of cold air, with the temperature drop in the south-south area of eastern Inner Mongolia and the south-central part of northeast China reaching 8 ~ 10℃. There are 5 ~ 6 winds in parts of central and eastern Inner Mongolia, southern Northeast China, eastern North China and eastern Huanghuai.

　　Under the influence of cold air, the highest temperature in southeastern and northeastern Inner Mongolia generally dropped to around 15℃, and in some areas it was only around 10℃. On the 28th, the lowest temperature in eastern Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang will drop to around 0℃. The highest temperature in North China has generally dropped by 20℃ in the early days, and autumn is getting stronger.

　　With cold air heading south and typhoon Miyu landing, the temperature in the south of the Yangtze River and South China will drop rapidly from 28th, and the highest temperature in most parts of the south of the Yangtze River and Guangdong will drop below 30℃. The hot weather will fade rapidly, and the autumn tiger will turn into a paper tiger.

　　Will you cry this winter?

　　For this windy and cool weather, some netizens said, "An autumn rain and a cold, in fact, it is nothing to cool down now. This winter, we may be frozen into dogs."

　　The reason why netizens have the above concerns is because of a word recently swiped — — La Nina.

　　The word "LaNina" comes from Spanish, originally meaning "little girl", which refers to the phenomenon that the sea surface temperature in the equatorial, Middle East and Pacific Ocean continues to be abnormally cold. If the 3-month moving average of SST anomaly is lower than -0.5℃ and lasts for at least 5 months, it is judged as a La Nina event.

　　Monitoring shows that in August 2016, the SST anomaly index in the equatorial Middle East Pacific was -0.53℃. According to the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Bureau, the equatorial Middle East Pacific entered La Nina state in August.

　　Li Xiaoquan, chief meteorologist of China Weather Network, said in an interview with Zhongxin. com (WeChat WeChat official account: cns2012) that it is still early in winter, and the authoritative meteorological department has not given the final forecast figures. It is still inconclusive whether La Nina will occur this winter.

　　"But now that we have entered the La Ni? a state, La Ni? a events may occur this winter. According to relevant analysis, in general, the probability of being cold this winter is greater." Li Xiaoquan said.

　　How powerful is La Nina?

　　According to China Weather Network, one of the impacts of La Nina event on China’s climate is that the temperature may be low in winter, which is prone to cold winter. Statistics show that since 1954, in the years affected by La Ni? a event, the proportion of cold winter in China has exceeded 80%.

　　For example, in the years affected by La Nina, the winter of 1954 was the coldest one, and the temperature was 2.95℃ lower than normal.

　　For another example, in early 2008, the La Nina incident was one of the important behind-the-scenes "pushers" of the once-in-50-year freezing rain and snow disaster in southern China.

　　According to regional statistics, in La Nina, the proportion of cold in winter in Tibet was the lowest, at 50%. In the northwest, southwest, south China and south China, it is as high as 80% or more.

　　Will La Nina definitely lead to a cold winter?

　　Will La Nina definitely lead to a cold winter? Li Xiaoquan said that normally, when La Nina happens, China will be colder in winter, but it doesn’t mean that it will enter the cold winter, but the probability of entering the cold winter is higher, especially in the southern region.

　　"La Nina came last year, which will make winter cold, but it doesn’t mean it will be particularly cold. It can be seen that some years have entered the cold winter, which is mostly related to the La Nina phenomenon, but it is not La Nina that will definitely enter the cold winter. "

　　As it said, it was also the winter of 1998/99 when the super El Ni? o turned to La Ni? a, but China experienced a warm winter.

　　China Weather Network reported on September 22nd that the equatorial Middle East and Pacific Ocean has entered La Nina state, but it has not reached the standard of La Nina event. China Meteorological Bureau will continuously monitor the development of La Nina.

The last three months of advance on demand.

Wen | Fu Qiongyin

Edit | Zhang Youfa

The Fog Theater has not been officially aired, and it has been searched four times.

In the third quarter of last year, Misty Theater became a hot topic with many suspense dramas such as Hidden Corner and Silent Truth, and a wave of suspense short plays rose in the market. The concept of theater is also considered as a new stage of content operation of streaming media platform.

The way of unified investment promotion and publicity in the theater also makes the business model of short plays explore further. At this point, the wind of advanced on-demand has blown up, and every work in the theater has also started to advance on-demand

By the time the Fog Theater returns this year, the drama market has changed greatly.

Two years after it was invented, the advanced on-demand mode was cancelled by Aiqiyi, Tencent and Youku. For the first time, the delayed drama that adopted the advanced on-demand mode has become the object of criticism by the official media this year, and only appeared silently in the overseas film list of the streaming media platform. The trend of short plays is still there, and long plays are getting shorter and shorter, but plays with more than 30 episodes and less than 50 episodes are still the mainstream in the market.

Looking back at the three months before the disappearance of VOD, some changes are already brewing.

When costume drama becomes a joke

From the word of mouth, this is the season when costume dramas become jokes.

"Ugly man in ancient costume" is a hot topic this season. The top 10 and 6 short comments on the costume drama "Jun Jiu Ling" are all accusing the actor of being ugly, and the comment that the tucao actor is "ugly out of the realm" has 778 people like it. Netizens even listed a list of "Ugly Men in Costume 101" to accuse the actor in costume drama of "unable to bear to look straight".

The hero’s "Yan value" is not satisfactory, but it is only a side reflection of the poor performance of costume dramas. In Yunhe data "TOP20 of the Top 20 of the Top 20 of the Top 20 of the New Series Played in Q3", there are only four costume dramas, and only "Zhou Sheng as usual" scored above 7 points, and the masterpiece "Song of the King" of Huanrui Century did not make the list.

In addition to the periodicity of content creation, the high proportion of sweet pet dramas in this quarter may be the main reason.

Zhou Sheng as usual and All My Life, which are split from the same novel, use the sadomasochism of the former to solve the "boredom" of the sweet pet of the latter; There are four men around the hostess of "Jun Jiu Ling" who never leave; "Song of the King" is the old way of "the belly-black emperor falls in love with me"-the scores of the last two films are not more than 5 points.

　

The sweet pet drama, which often strikes back at a small cost, has become a hot type in the market since 2015 when "go princess go" was set to strike back all the way with the thunder people of the "poor crew" and became a popular online drama.

According to the "Research Report on Domestic Drama Market in 2020" released by Yien Data, sweet pet dramas account for 44% of the total number of online dramas broadcast in 2020, and most of them are small dramas with less than 30 episodes. At present, there are many costume dramas that are being spit out by the audience, and many of them are such low-cost accounting dolls.

Go princess go (Source: Douban)

On the contrary, in the contemporary theme, there are many works with both word-of-mouth and enthusiasm. Urban theme is still the mainstream in this quarter. There are 33 urban dramas in the new dramas in 2021Q3, accounting for 29% of the total new dramas in the world, and the effective broadcast accounts for 44%.

Among them, Sweeping the Black Storm, You are My Glory and Yunnan Worm Valley are among the top three in Yunhe Data, and the TOP10 of the 10 new domestic dramas in 2021Q3 are rated as contemporary themes, with the highest score of 8.2, I’m fine in another country.

However, as the champion and runner-up of Q3 episodes, Sweeping the Black Storm and You Are My Glory are hard to copy.

The former has a golden lineup of "Endorsement of the Central Political and Legal Committee+Tencent Video Production+Sun Honglei+500 Directors", which is an unofficial work that is difficult to shoot; The latter is authorized by the glory of the king for the first time, and has established contact with Penguin Film and Television since the stage of writing novels in Gu Man, and the drama series can even go to the space base when shaping the hero’s space career.

While making good use of the scarce value, Sweeping the Black Storm and You Are My Glory also have some "atypical" operating ideas.

In order to be different from the past detective dramas, Wu Bai used a lot of subjective shots such as "the protagonist’s perspective" in "Sweeping the Black Storm" to strengthen psychological description, which is usually more used in movies; "You are my glory" is different from the "rapid progress" of the general sweet pet drama. It was not until the 21 ST episode that the relationship was formally determined, and at the same time, it tried its best to describe the "grounded" side of the "ungrounded" career.

The scarcity of the theme provides the audience with a long-lost freshness. The atypia means that the production of high-quality modern themes is not only a production problem, but also a resource acquisition problem. The ability to control and integrate scarce resources will continue to be the advantage of the future platform.

Although the "film sense" of "Sweeping the Black Storm" is effective in both the subject matter and the shooting method, it also has the problem of "acclimatization".

Although the score of "Beizhenanyuan" is only 5.0, its photography and lighting team almost meets the requirements of film texture, but when the plot of a series is widely questioned, emphasizing texture is putting the cart before the horse; Douban 7.0′ s "Double Detective" is full of film resumes, which can’t save the slightly loose plot.

The exploration of film sense continues this season, but the IP that has been verified by the market has been questioned.

This is a season of collective decline in the word-of-mouth of grave robbery. The "Stealing Pen" series has just earned back a part of its reputation by Ultimate Notes, and it has been severely trampled by Genting Tiangong with a score of 2.6. As of press time, the douban score of Yunnan Worm Valley is 6.3, while the previous work Longling Cave has a high score of 8.3. The "Trio", which has been highly praised, has been questioned by the routine in this film.

"Yunnan Worm Valley" is the fourth ghost blowing lamp produced by the same team. How long can the long-term value of the drama IP last?

The last season of advance on demand

This is the last season of advanced on-demand existence, and the shutdown came by surprise.

On September 10th, Tencent Video rushed to Weibo for hot search in one fell swoop due to the adjustment of advance on demand. Since the Shanghai Consumer Protection Committee and China Consumers Association thought that "unlocking episode by episode" was unreasonable, Tencent’s video was adjusted in "Yunnan Worm Valley", and then the episodes on demand in advance can be unlocked. According to china securities journal, iQiyi and Youku will also follow up.

In the third quarter, advanced on-demand is still going on as usual and making steady progress.

According to Yunhe data, 46 advanced on-demand dramas were launched in 2021Q3, an increase of 9 over the same period of last year. Super-drama accounts for 41% of the total number of new dramas in the world, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year. In addition, the effective broadcast of the advanced on-demand drama series during the on-demand period was 600 million, an increase of 82% compared with 2020Q3; Among them, the on-demand content of "Sweeping Black Storm" effectively played more than 100 million yuan, creating a peak of on-demand content playback.

　

The "Sweeping the Black Storm", which set the peak of the broadcast, pushed forward the nodes that were ahead of schedule. The 28-episode "Sweeping the Black Storm" has been launched on-demand since 15 episodes. In the interview, Poison Eyes learned that many dramas have achieved good results in the third quarter, such as "You are my glory" and "The dust of the ages".

The audience seems to be used to showing their love and recognition for the drama series by pre-ordering. After unlocking "You are My Glory" in advance, you will see a large number of viewers who say "come with money" in the barrage. When "Sweeping Black Storm" was broadcasted, many people even asked "Is it possible to unlock it to the end with one button?" However, for a drama with poor reputation like "Eight Dragons", some people will question "How can this be on-demand in advance?"

This model, which survived for two years, came to an end on October 4th by three platforms. At present, only Mango TV and bilibili, two platforms that have started advance VOD, have not expressed their views.

Short-lived advance on demand was once a life-saving medicine invented by streaming media platform.

Judging from the financial reports of each family in the first half of the year, the trend of slowing down the growth rate of members continues further. In the first half of the year, the number of paying members of iQiyi Q1 increased by 3.6 million, while Q2 only increased by 900,000, and the growth rate declined. The number of paid members of Tencent Video reached 125 million, up 9% year-on-year, unchanged from the first quarter. Youku only disclosed the average daily paying users, which increased by 35% in the first quarter and 17% in the second quarter, but the specific figures are unknown.

Membership operation is the basic logic of streaming media, but the traditional mode of supporting membership growth has almost touched the ceiling, which makes several traditional streaming media platforms still in a state of narrowing losses but not turning losses into profits.

Iqiyi Q1 and Q2 have revenues of 8 billion yuan and 7.6 billion yuan respectively. Although they still face losses, the losses have been reduced for five consecutive quarters. The information revealed by Youku in the financial report also mentioned that the loss narrowed year-on-year, because of "rigorous investment in content and optimization of paid membership plan".

The form is critical, even to the point where the top management of the three platforms directly fired short videos at the network audio-visual conference. In recent years, the platform has also raised the price of members, launched a variety of preferential packages and other means, and advanced on-demand is also a product born in this form.

At the same time, advance VOD is also a way to transplant the fan economy to the drama series. It is no accident that the advanced on-demand mode was born in the American drama with a high vertical fans. It is one of the links of the huge fan economic industrial chain of the drama. At the same time that The Untamed released the advanced on-demand video, the title of Tencent video "Huang Goose Niang" was also widely circulated in Weibo, and users’ personification and emotional connection with the platform seemed to be deepening.

However, for producers, advanced on-demand can not bring C-end revenue. In these two years, advanced on-demand has not yet become one of the producers’ sources of income. Many producers don’t have the right to participate and know, and they don’t know when their plays will be on demand in advance.

Will there be a Netflix mode in which members can watch the complete works at one time after the cancellation of advance demand? In 2016 and 2017, when the members of the platform were crazy, "members read the complete works at one time" also appeared, but most of them were driven by high popularity starring, or a backlog drama with little impact on income.

The recent popularity of "Squid Game" has also made the comparison between Netflix mode and domestic streaming media a hot topic. One of the questions is whether it is possible for domestic streaming media to do less dramas with more money like Netflix.

Wu Yuefeng, manager of Fengjing Capital Fund, once analyzed in Weibo that iQiyi will launch 15-20 TV dramas and 3-5 variety shows in a quarter, so if it is dismantled, the cost of each drama will be only a few hundred million dollars, which can only maintain the overall qualified quality.

However, Netflix’s total operating cost last year was 20.4 billion US dollars (about 133.2 billion RMB), and this figure was as high as 10.4 billion US dollars (69.1 billion RMB) in the first half of this year, of which the single-season content expenditure was roughly 5-6 of that of iQiyi. However, the number of series produced by Netflix is not so much, and its heavy new works planned for 2021 are only 21.

Sharing Netflix’s huge content cost is global dumping. At present, Netflix has entered more than 160 countries around the world, and Latin America and Asia-Pacific even have about 1/2-1/3 users in the United States.

After the announcement of the end of advance on demand, the task of increasing the number of members’ subscriptions and the paid value of individual members has become more heavy. It’s just that unlike Netflix’s positioning as a global user, domestic streaming media platforms need to increase to the sinking market.

QuestMobile data shows that by October 2020, sinking users have occupied 58% (669 million) of the cmnet market, but the average monthly usage time of sinking users is only 140.1 hours, and those after 00 and 70 are potential people for further growth of the sinking market.

In this regard, streaming media is also making changes through hardware+software. For example, iQiyi has launched the iQiyi Extreme Edition for the characteristics of mobile phone use in the sinking market. The Extreme Edition is promoted to the sinking market. "I hope that after they see the higher quality film and television content, because the film and television content is produced by professional directors, screenwriters and actors, they can put more time on the film and television content." Gong Yu, founder and CEO of iQiyi, once told the media.

Tencent is involved, and the head company is absent

No matter from the number of broadcasts or broadcast data, Tencent video is the best in this quarter.

Tencent videos accounted for 13 of the TOP20 episodes in Q3, among which three solo dramas, Sweeping the Black Storm, You are my glory and Yunnan Worm Valley, took the top three. These three series are broadcast one after another for the S-class drama of Tencent Video this quarter, and Tencent also has such a happy trouble of "rolling itself".

(Source: Yunhe Data)

Driven by several major dramas in August, Tencent’s video performance in 2021Q3 was outstanding, with several major dramas launched continuously in summer, and the number of dramas on the whole network effectively played 31.2 billion, ranking first in the platform, but there was still a 12% decline compared with 20Q3. The effective broadcast of the whole network dramas of iQiyi and Youku were 28.5 billion and 14.9 billion respectively, down 20% and 17% year-on-year.

At the same time, the effective broadcasting of Mango TV and bilibili has improved.

Although dramas such as "Song of the King" and "Bailingtan" have insufficient reputation, they still drive the effective broadcast of Mango TV to increase by 3% year-on-year. Last year, bilibili entered the drama battlefield with a high-profile film "The Sky of Wind Dog Boys". This year, in Q3, new dramas such as "Double Mirrors", "Sudden Vacation" and "Best Friends" were added, and the effective broadcast increased by 26 times compared with the same period of last year.

Five platforms are fighting in the field of drama, and "theatrical" is the direction that all of them are exploring. However, compared with last year’s misty theater fire, this year’s theater performance is weak.

According to the TOP20 data above, there are two top 20 dramas in the Love Theater where Iqiyi focuses on sweet pet dramas, namely "A Life" and "Zhou Sheng as usual"-these two dramas are separated from a novel, telling the story of Shengchen Zhou and Shishi, and they are strictly one drama.

Mango’s monsoon theater, a fire, "I am quite good in other places", but unfortunately the follow-up is weak. Monsoon Theater does not have a strong collection of works like Fog Theater and Favorite Theater, and the commonality between works is not very strong. At present, the biggest common point among the works of Monsoon Theater is that "the number of episodes does not exceed 16", and the loose collection and the unity of form are still the idea of comparative satellite TV.

Practitioners who have been exposed to Mango TV told Poison Eye that Monsoon Theater also has some traditional satellite TV ideas in content selection and production. For example, the first version of the script "Mother-in-law’s Bracelet" was once considered to be not bloody enough, and the target was not sinking enough, so it was finally revised.

Mother-in-law’s bracelet

However, as a theatrical effect that has been verified to occupy users’ minds and form a brand effect, it will not be abandoned by the platform. The return of Misty Theater is just around the corner. According to informed sources, bilibili is also planning his own theater.

Compared with the competition of multiple dramas in the same period between platforms, the performance of the head company is much quieter.

Six head drama companies that often appear together in many statements: Noon Sunshine, Xinli Media, Ciwen Media, Yaoke Media, Huace Film and Television, and Ning Meng Film and Television, only noon handed over the highly acclaimed Children of the Qiao Family in the third quarter. Xinli Media is still spinning in the low-scoring Jin Yong drama.

In the past, among the listed companies, Tang De Film and Television broadcasted a small-budget sweet pet drama "The Secret of Hidden Grimes", and two dramas of Huanrui Century, Genting Tiangong and Song of the King, both suffered a decline in word of mouth. On the contrary, the "new forces" in the era of online drama performed well. The drama "Sweeping the Black Storm" produced by Wuyuan Culture was well received, and "Sailing: When the Wind blows" produced by Little Sugar Man also had a good score of 8.5.

In the last quarter of 2021, it may be that "Tencent involution" will enter the stage of all-platform involution. Four works of the Iqiyi Fog Theater will be broadcast one after another. The first one is "The Fog of the Octagonal Pavilion" starring Duan Long and Hao Lei; Tencent Video has a number of IP costumes in stock, such as A Sword in the Snow and A Twin Cities in the Mirror, while Youku holds a large number of online dramas to be broadcast, such as The Story of Xingfu’s Ice Rain and Fire.

But for the fans, perhaps the involution of the series is a great blessing.

Squid Game, a Korean drama under Netflix filter.

The screen disappearance of the beautiful man in ancient costume

　　Recently, the real estate market has received more attention. On the one hand, the growth rate of real estate loans continues to decline, on the other hand, mortgage interest rates in various places have increased to varying degrees. How will the regulatory policy be promoted? Will mortgage interest rates continue to rise? In response to the above hot topics, the reporter interviewed a number of industry experts.

　　Supervision and intensive inspection of real estate financing

　　Since the beginning of this year, under the main tone of the policy of "housing and not speculating", real estate financing has continued to tighten. The report on the implementation of monetary policy in China in the second quarter recently released by the People’s Bank of China shows that by the end of June, the balance of real estate loans of major financial institutions (including foreign capital) in China was 41.9 trillion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points lower than that at the end of March. Among them, the balance of individual housing loans was 28.06 trillion yuan, up 17.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that at the end of March.

　　These changes in the field of mortgage are closely related to regulatory policies. In May, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued an early warning to Foshan, Suzhou, Dalian and Nanning, where the price index of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing has increased significantly in the past three months, and some cities with overheated property markets have stepped up regulation. Affected by this, mortgage interest rates in a few popular cities rebounded.

　　According to the latest monitoring data released by Rong 360 Big Data Research Institute, the average interest rate of the first home loan in July was 5.44%, equivalent to 1.11 times the benchmark interest rate, up 2 basis points from the previous month; The average interest rate of second-home loans was 5.76%, up 1 basis point from the previous month. From the data point of view, the national mortgage interest rate level rebounded in the second half of the year.

　　In the second half of the year, the trend of stricter supervision became more obvious. At the end of July, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting to plan the economic work in the second half of the year, and made it clear that the house should be used for living, not for speculation, and the long-term management mechanism of real estate should be implemented, and real estate should not be used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy.

　　Subsequently, the regulatory authorities acted intensively, tightening real estate financing from banks, trusts, open market bonds and other aspects. Recently, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission launched a special inspection of bank real estate financing, focusing on the management of real estate development loans and land reserve loans in 32 cities, and severely investigated and dealt with all kinds of illegal acts of diverting funds into the real estate industry.

　　While the financing of real estate enterprises has been significantly tightened, the supervision of personal housing credit business has also been further strengthened. The recent symposium on the adjustment and optimization of credit structure of banking financial institutions held by the central bank proposed to maintain a reasonable and moderate growth of personal housing loans, and it is strictly forbidden to use consumer loans for buying houses illegally. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission began to check the implementation of differentiated credit policies of banks, implemented the minimum down payment ratio and loan restriction policy requirements, performed the assessment and inspection of the authenticity of down payment funds and the solvency of loan applicants, and focused on investigating the misappropriation of personal comprehensive consumer loans, business loans, "down payment loans", credit card overdrafts and other bank credit funds in the real estate sector.

　　Interest rates in many places have risen to varying degrees.

　　It is worth noting that the monitoring data of Rong 360 Big Data Research Institute shows that the trend of mortgage interest rates in first-tier cities and second-tier cities in July is quite different.

　　Among the first-tier cities, the mortgage interest rates in Beijing and Guangzhou were the same as last month, while the average level in Shanghai and Shenzhen declined. Among them, many banks in Shanghai lowered the mortgage interest rate, which led to a decrease of 7 basis points in the first home loan interest rate in Shanghai, second only to Haikou, making it the second largest city in China. In second-tier cities, mortgage interest rates in several popular areas have risen. Among them, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dalian and Changsha have accelerated the frequency of adjustment, and have recently raised the mortgage interest rate more than once, and some banks have tight quotas and even suspended accepting mortgage business.

　　In this regard, Ceng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, thinks that we should look at it differently. First of all, not all urban mortgage interest rates are rising, which shows that policy regulation is accurate, because normal credit should exist. Secondly, it is not necessary to increase the mortgage interest rate. The key is to block the illegal entry of funds into the real estate sector.

　　"In the environment of tightening policies, commercial banks tend to be cautious about personal housing loan business." Dong Ximiao, deputy dean of Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said that after the large-scale credit supply in the first half of the year, the credit line was relatively small in the second half of the year, and an appropriate increase in interest rates would help banks improve their income level. At the same time, in recent years, the leverage ratio of China’s residential sector has risen rapidly, and real estate financial risks are accumulating. Raising the loan interest rate will help commercial banks to better guard against housing loan risks.

　　Dong Ximiao said that in the case that the market liquidity is still reasonable and abundant, although the interest rate of individual housing loans may be further raised, the increase will not be too large. "However, different banks have different positioning for personal housing loan business, and the credit resources invested for this purpose are quite different, so there will be obvious differentiation in the loan interest rate. It is expected that the personal housing loan interest rate of large commercial banks will maintain a moderate upward trend." He said.

　　Implement differentiated housing credit policies

　　"In combination with recent policies, banks will adjust their credit structure in the future to reduce the credit resources occupied by the real estate industry and invest more credit funds in manufacturing, small and medium-sized enterprises and other fields encouraged by the state." Li Wanfu, an analyst at Rong 360 Big Data Research Institute, said.

　　At the same time, industry experts believe that commercial banks should continue to implement differentiated housing credit policies. Dong Ximiao said that we can start from four aspects. First, adjust the total amount of loans and reasonably determine the total amount of personal housing loans of banks; The second is to adjust the loan price and raise or lower the interest rate of individual housing loans; Third, adjust the loan conditions, tighten or relax the loan qualification conditions (including loan qualification and loan term) of the main body of the house purchase; The fourth is to adjust the down payment of loans and control the leverage ratio of buyers.

　　"In the next step, we should comprehensively use the above four means according to the different purchase areas and subjects, combining quantity and price, adjusting the total amount and price, meeting the rigid demand and restraining investment speculation, focusing on the present and guiding expectations, and implementing the differentiated housing credit policy." Dong Ximiao said.

　　Regarding the strict investigation of "down payment loan" by the regulatory authorities, Ceng Gang said: "Down payment is one of the means of bank risk control, because self-owned funds are an important standard to measure repayment ability. If the customer’s down payment is borrowed, then the bank’s risk exposure will be great. "

　　In addition, some experts have warned that paying attention to the entry of credit funds into the property market should not only focus on commercial banks and consumer finance companies. Various Internet lending platforms monitor the flow of funds less, and the proportion of entering the property market may be higher.

　　"We should continue to intensify the clean-up and rectification of various Internet platforms, and strengthen the monitoring of their lending business in terms of lending purposes and capital flow." Dong Ximiao said that monitoring the flow and use of credit funds is a long-standing problem for both financial institutions and Internet platforms. Relevant institutional measures should be revised to incorporate fictitious loan purposes and misappropriation of credit funds into the credit information system, increase the illegal cost of borrowers, and curb the illegal flow of personal credit funds into the property market from the source.

　　(Reporter Qian Wei Intern Zhang Ziyue)

　　[Car History] When it comes to its classic models, I’m afraid there is no one who doesn’t know the name except the familiar ones. The Beatles laid a solid foundation for the Volkswagen brand, and Dave became the spiritual and material double pillar of the Volkswagen Group. Just like the popular saying that "with golf (), there will be all models of the public", golf has become synonymous with the public. Since its birth in 1974, after 39 years of development, today’s golf has evolved into the seventh generation. Although most people have already memorized the history of golf, it doesn’t prevent you from revisiting the legendary development history of this Volkswagen classic model again, and maybe you can gain something new.

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The background of golf: replacing the exhausted Beetle (Volkswagen EA-276 prototype)

　　Although the Beetle has brought great honor and benefits to the public, it has not changed much since it was officially born in 1938. At the end of 1960s, the sales volume of the Beetle dropped sharply. Volkswagen knew that the exhausted Beetle could not meet the people’s demand for the "national car" in terms of technology and the utilization of the interior space, and the successor to develop the "national car" was officially put on the agenda. In 1969, two prototypes, EA-266 and EA-276, were born one after another. Because EA-266 was placed in the lower rear seat, it was quickly eliminated by the noise and smell from the engine, while EA-276 with layout was successfully promoted. The car was equipped with a 1.5-liter horizontally opposed four-cylinder engine with 44 horsepower, and its square shape was probably not very pleasing. This is the prototype of Volkswagen Golf.

Note: Many people mistakenly think that the name of Golf comes from Golf. In fact, the naming method of Golf follows the consistent style of Volkswagen, that is, many of its models are named after the wind, as we know, Santana and others, and Golf comes from a warm current in the Gulf of Mexico.

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The First Generation Golf Mk1(Typ 17)——1974-1983
Classic, the first "hatchback"

　　In May 1974, the first generation of golf officially entered people’s sight. Compared with the slightly rigid shape of EA-276 prototype, the "origami" design concept put forward by Italian car designer Giorgetto endowed the first generation of golf with an indelible classic shape. Maybe you don’t like its square-headed, square-brained shape, but when you look at it again today, you will find that this simple line is so intriguing. The whole plastic air intake grille is inlaid with two round headlights, and the front bumper hanging on the front of the car is shaped like a chopstick. Although it is a new "national car", chrome decoration is still full of air intake grille, bumper edge and body waist line. (Click to enter the biography of Giorgetto, the master of automobile design)

　　The first generation golf adopted the same hatchback shape as the prototype EA-276, and the concept of "hatchback" was first applied by golf and introduced into the field of automobile design. Compared with the prototype, the angle of the trunk cover of golf is more inclined. "Chopsticks" are always a pair, not one. Except for the turn signals on both sides of the front bumper, the front and rear bumpers are strikingly similar in size and shape, and the prominent wheel eyebrows make their simple shape have a sense of hierarchy. The first generation of golf is divided into two types: two-door hatchback and four-door hatchback. Taking the golf hatchback version as an example, its vehicle size is 3705mm long, 1610mm wide, 1395mm high and 2400mm high, and its weight is only 790kg.

　　The interior design of the first generation golf seems a bit too simple as its modeling. The Volkswagen "Wolfsburg" logo was placed in the center of the two-spoke steering wheel. The left side of the double-barrel instrument panel was not a tachometer, but a "disguised" clock. The water temperature and fuel gauge were located at 12 o’clock and 6 o’clock respectively, and the right side was a speedometer. The only thing that can make people shine in the car is the silver plaque on the center console. A large area under the T-shaped area of the center console has been ruthlessly wasted. Interestingly, the gear sign is placed above the cigarette lighter near the co-pilot’s side. For beginners, this design will inevitably make people crazy.

　　The first generation of golf adopts the structure of front and back half. Compared with the previous "national car" Beetle, golf has been greatly improved in maneuverability and practicality. The configuration of the first generation golf can only be considered enough. All you can see in the car are simple and practical configurations such as radio, air conditioner and hand-cranked window. In addition, Volkswagen also equipped the first generation of golf with front wheel disc brake system and rear wheel drum brake system. These configurations may not be worth mentioning at present, but as the successor of the Beatles, the overall quality of golf is still satisfactory.

　　In terms of power, the first-generation golf, which was originally launched, was only equipped with a 1.1-liter inline four-cylinder engine, with a maximum of 50 horsepower and a maximum of 78 N m. Since then, Volkswagen has successively launched golf models with 1.3 liters, 1.5 liters, 1.6 liters, 1.7 liters, 1.5 liters and 1.6 liters. Among them, the 1.6-liter inline four-cylinder gasoline engine has a maximum power of 86 HP (63kW)/5600rpm and a maximum torque of 127 N m/3200 rpm, which is matched with the engine at 4, 5 and 3 speeds.

　　In March, 1975, the first generation of sports golf model-Golf GTI appeared, and it was officially listed in June, 1976. The first generation of GTI also has two models, three-door and five-door hatchback, for consumers to choose from. The original intention of GTI is to let consumers enjoy driving even if they buy economical cars. In order to be different from ordinary golf, GTI, as a sports model, has made some optimization in appearance details, the most obvious of which is a circle of red decorative lines on the periphery of the front air intake grille, with a black Volkswagen logo in the center, the "GTI" on the side is particularly conspicuous, and the front and rear bumpers are also chrome-plated. At the same time, the plastic black spoiler under the front of the car complements the black wheel eyebrows, which further highlights the exclusive sense of GTI.

　　Volkswagen has rendered the sporty atmosphere of the first generation GTI interior to the extreme. The monotonous two-spoke steering wheel on the regular version was replaced by a three-spoke competitive steering wheel with the logo of Wolfsburg. What about the clock on the left side of the original dashboard? For GTI, which pursues sports, the tachometer is more pragmatic. In order not to destroy the overall color of the interior, the silver center console panel has also been changed to black. Before, the sealed part under the center console was changed into a storage space. The oil temperature gauge on the left side below also reminds you at all times that this is a sporty car, and the forgotten clock is placed on the right side of the oil temperature gauge. The most exciting thing for fans is the Golf ball-shaped stopper. Is this to match the name of Golf? Who cares! What fans are after is an excellent feel.

　　A sporty appearance alone is definitely not enough for fans to pay for it willingly. The first generation GTI is equipped with a 1.6-liter inline four-cylinder naturally aspirated fuel injection engine, with a maximum power of 110 HP (81 kW)/6,100 rpm and a maximum torque of 140 N m/5,000 rpm. For a GTI weighing only 810kg, its acceleration time of 0-100km/h is only 9.2. Low vehicle weight, solid chassis and strong power make GTI known as "". With the success of the first generation of golf GTI, other manufacturers have also launched their own "small steel cannon" models, and golf has once again become the leader of the new trend in the industry.

　　The original intention of Volkswagen to launch golf GTI is only to participate in the competition. Volkswagen originally planned to produce 5,000 golf GTIs to meet the qualification of production cars stipulated by the competition. I never thought that the first generation of golf GTI would be sought after by fans as soon as it was launched, so Volkswagen continued to increase production to meet the market demand for this "small steel gun". Since its birth in 1975, the first generation of golf GTI has produced about 530,000 sets, which has since established GTI’s unshakable position.

　　As the sales of the first generation of golf are rising, it has increased the confidence of the public in developing new models. In 1979, the golf convertible version derived from the first generation of golf was officially unveiled. The birth of the golf convertible made people realize that the original economical car can be so romantic. The first-generation golf convertible version uses a soft-top convertible that can be folded manually, and the horizontal position of B-pillar can effectively increase the strength of the whole vehicle. Volkswagen has made some modifications to the front and rear bumpers of the first-generation golf convertible version, and the black plastic decoration added to the rear license plate position makes the rear of the car look less monotonous.

　　In 1975, Volkswagen introduced the first generation of Golf to the North American market and assembled it in the Volkswagen westmorland factory in the United States. The American version was named Rabbit instead of Golf. In order to comply with safety regulations, Rabbit has adopted an "extended" bumper, which is also a major feature of European models entering the North American market. Due to the use of soft suspension and too cheap materials, the quality of Rabbit is extremely unstable, which also makes the German public angry. In 1980, North American Volkswagen introduced a modified model of Rabbit, which changed the original round headlights into a square style, while the convertible version of Rabbit still used round headlights.

　　In 1981, Volkswagen launched the Rabbit version, a derivative model of Rabbit. The car adopts a double-door design, and the wheelbase is lengthened and then equipped with a rear cargo compartment. If you are used to the ordinary version of the car and look at the pickup version, you will find it very different. The dimensions of the Rabbit pickup truck version are 4380mm long, 1640mm wide, 1490mm high and 2625mm wheelbase. In 1983, Volkswagen introduced Rabbit GTI. Unlike Golf GTI, Rabbit GTI equipped with a 1.8-liter inline four-cylinder engine has only 91 horsepower (67kW), which obviously does not meet the definition of "small steel gun". Rabbit GTI exported to Canada is all made in Germany, equipped with a 110 HP (82kW) 1.8-liter inline four-cylinder engine.

　　In 1983, Volkswagen introduced the first generation of small modified golf models. The most striking feature of the modified golf is the "four-eye" headlights, which are more full in taillight style and more in line with the trend at that time. Interestingly, the first generation of golf convertible was not modified until 1988. Except for the four-round headlights, the new bumper with the same color as the car body is more full, and the application of side skirts makes the visual effect of the whole car lower. Many improvements have made the modified golf convertible look energetic.

　　Compared with the North American version of golf, the South African version of golf-Volkswagen Citi is even more "wonderful". The car has three power combinations, namely 86 horsepower 1.4 liters, 102 horsepower 1.6 liters and 124 horsepower 1.8 liters in-line four-cylinder engines. From 1984 to 2009, it was officially discontinued. After repeated "face-lifting" production, although the interior design of Volkswagen Citi keeps pace with the times, its appearance will always maintain the original essence of the first generation of golf, and the Rabbit pickup truck model in North America market was named Caddy for production in South Africa. During the 25-year production cycle, a total of 377,484 Volkswagen Citi rolled off the production line. In Mexico, the first generation of golf was named Caribe for sale. From its birth in 1974 to its discontinuation in 1983 (Citi didn’t discontinue production until 2009), the first generation of golf sold a total of 6,780,050 sets worldwide. Such impressive sales laid a solid foundation for its future development, and the new "national car" also gained a firm foothold.